Just five months ago, Juan Soto hit a dramatic, two-out, two-strike, three-run home run to break a 2-2 tie in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the ALCS. 

That helped send the New York Yankees to their first World Series in 15 years.

For Yankees fans, it was as good as it gets — perhaps more than they could imagine at the moment. 

But then, the Yankees lost the World Series to the Dodgers. 

They let multiple leads in Game 1 slip away, including being one out away from a win when they surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman. 

That series ended with the Yankees once again blowing multiple leads, this time in Game 5. In that game, New York led 5-0 in the fifth inning, before multiple errors on seemingly routine plays led to the undoing. That allowed the Dodgers to tie the game. 

The Yankees would pull ahead later in the contest, only to relinquish that lead as well and cost themselves a chance to return to Los Angeles for Game 6.

As painful as the finish to the season was for the Yankees, this offseason has seen the wound of the World Series get treated with a New York-sized dose of salt. 

In December, the aforementioned Soto decided to stay in the Big Apple but switched leagues and teams, signing a mega-contract with the Mets. 

While the Yankees made a handful of widely praised moves in an attempt to offset the loss of Soto, much of the enthusiasm for those moves has subsided. After a rough spring outing, ace Gerrit Cole sought opinions on an achy elbow, culminating in a decision to get Tommy John surgery. 

Cole’s season ended before it began.

Then you have slugger Giancarlo Stanton. He is dealing with not one but two achy elbows, has not participated in baseball activities and has not ruled out getting surgery. Like Cole, surgery would end his season. 

Oh, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil will be out several months with a shoulder injury, and it’s unclear when he will be able to return to the mound. 

So where’s the bet to be made amidst all this doom and gloom?

Certainly, the Yankees missing the playoffs at +200 odds is intriguing, considering what a nightmare winter it has been. If you’re looking for a longer payout, maybe right-handed Yankees pitcher Will Warren — who looks like he will take Cole’s spot in the rotation — is worth a shot to win Rookie of the Year at 15-1, although that number has been slashed since the Cole news broke. 

Of all these, I like Aaron Judge Under 47.5 home runs the most.

Aaron Judge Under 47.5 home runs (FanDuel)

Judge walked a league-leading 133 times last year, and that was in a lineup with Soto and Stanton. With those two guys not near him in the lineup to add traffic and protection like last year, teams will be ultra careful pitching to Judge, making it hard for the reigning MVP to duplicate his incredible numbers from 2024. 

Also, Judge will be 34 in April, and despite being in the league for almost a decade now, he has only had 500 plate appearances four times in his career. 

For a team that has already been bitten by the injury bug, it’s not inconceivable that the big-bodied Judge has to miss a few weeks here and there, which would also strengthen the chances of cashing this Under 47.5 homers bet. 

Without much around him in terms of help in that lineup, and the possibility of injury, betting on Judge to not hit 48 home runs is a wager worth making.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network. 

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