The two favorites in Saturday’s Final Four matchups might have fallen, but Monday’s national championship game shapes up to potentially be an all-timer. It’s also the matchup that FOX Sports college basketball expert John Fanta envisioned would take place for the title before the tournament began.

Florida and Houston will battle for the national championship on Monday. The two teams emerged victorious in the second-ever Final Four to feature four No. 1 seeds, with Florida taking down No. 1 overall seed Auburn and Houston pulling off a comeback for the ages to beat Duke.

Senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. was the biggest reason for Florida’s victory on Saturday, scoring 34 points on 11-of-18 shooting from the field and 5-of-8 from 3-point range. Clayton became just the second player to score 30 points in consecutive NCAA Tournament games in the Elite Eight or later, with Larry Bird being the only other one to do that.

Fanta called that stat the “nugget of all nuggets” heading into Monday’s title game, adding that Clayton’s play has been reminiscent of Kemba Walker’s when he led UConn to a championship in 2011. 

“This guy is a tough shot-taker and an even tougher shotmaker,” Fanta said on FS1’s “The Herd.” “You cannot just send one at him. That’s the dilemma for Houston. It’s only fitting that the best defensive team in this sport now has to find a way to crack the code of the hero of this tournament. He’s been brilliant.”

As Fanta mentioned, Houston’s defense is elite in many metrics. It ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s defensive rating, third in standard defensive rating and first in field goal percentage against. Duke star freshman Cooper Flagg went for 27 points on 8-of-19 shooting against the Cougars, but they slowed down his supporting cast, which led to the Blue Devils making just one shot in the final 10:31 and allowing the Cougars to make a memorable comeback.

Fanta expects Houston will have a similar defensive approach on Monday, potentially putting the onus on Florida’s supporting cast to get the job done. 

“I think they’re going to stick with what got them there because they’re going to send doubles, they’re going to try to blitz on ball screens. They like to create chaos,” Fanta said of Houston’s defense. “But they have a frontline that can stay with any opposing frontline enough that they don’t give up any easy buckets. 

“Florida has the pieces to capitalize with some perimeter shooting. I think this game is decided by which backcourt is better offensively. If they do try to frazzle Clayton with their defense, which they’re going to, they’re going to apply ball pressure, they’re going to make him work, will Alijah Martin and Will Richard be able to cash in?”

While Kelvin Sampson has made defense and toughness Houston’s identity over his tenure as head coach, the Cougars aren’t without high-scoring options, either. Senior guard L.J. Cryer, a third-team All-American, has been the focal point of Houston’s offense this season, scoring 26 points on Saturday and averaging 18.6 points per game in the tournament. 

Fanta believes that Florida has to slow down Cryer first, which he thinks it can do. 

“You cannot let Cryer get cooking early,” Fanta said. “He’s coming off a 20-plus point performance. He was brilliant. Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp didn’t shoot the ball well on Saturday night. Sharp made a couple of huge shots, including the biggest shot of the game, I felt, when he cut the lead from six to three. But if you’re Houston, the reason why you’re different this year is because you’ve had a three-headed monster in your backcourt that can get cooking at any instant.

“Florida can shut teams down, too. If you didn’t think they could, look at the job that they did on Johni Broome and Tahaad Pettiford, [with the latter] only making one shot on Saturday. So, Florida is really good defensively. They’re top-10 in the country.”

To Fanta’s point, one of Houston’s closest calls in this tournament came when Cryer had arguably his worst game of the season. He scored just five points on 2-of-13 shooting in Houston’s win over Purdue in the Sweet 16.

That’s been one of a few close calls for Houston, though. Florida has also had a few close calls as well, needing late comebacks to take UConn down in the Round of 32 and Texas Tech in the Elite Eight before doing the same against Auburn on Saturday.

Still, Fanta views Monday’s matchup as a heavyweight battle, with Clayton or Cryer likely determining the outcome. 

“It’s a guard’s game. Florida has the best guard on paper, but Houston’s got some really difficult shotmakers,” Fanta said. “This is a toss-up for a reason. My pick in my bracket was Florida. So, I’m staying committed to my guns here because Clayton’s been a man possessed, and I trust Florida’s frontline. But can Houston win this game? Of course.”

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